The polls have reversed course; McCain is now BEHIND Obama

As predicted, the national polls in the Presidential race have served their purpose. Immediately prior to "Super Tuesday," "the polls" told us that John McCain was THE Republican candidate that could beat either Democrat (Hillary or Obama). Rasmussen gave McCain a 6 point lead over Obama.

One week later, frightened Republican voters all but handed John McCain the Republican nomination, driving Mitt Romney from the race. Today, "the polls" tell us that Obama leads McCain by six (6) points.

The polls served their purpose. They drove Romney from the race. They pressured and misled Republican voters into supporting the "electable" John McCain because he would appeal to "moderates" and "independents." Mission accomplished. Now that McCain stands virtually alone in his race to wrap up the nomination, "the polls" can once again resume their function as self-fulfilling prophecies, boosting Obama with an early "lead" so that the "independents" and "undecideds" will know which direction to follow.

I predicted this outcome on January 31st. I did not foresee how rapidly the reversal would come. [While two different polling companies have provided these opposite poll results, I am sure those pollsters are as different as NBC News and ABC News.]

Any Republican who voted for McCain in a primary because he was more "electable" has been suckered.

Once again, do not believe the polls

Yesterday, another poll was released. This poll claimed that John McCain enjoys leads over both of the Democrat frontrunners.

Do not believe it. Polls showing this outcome will disappear as soon as John McCain wraps up the nomination. If that happens, instead of polls, we will begin hearing about the "Keating 5." Shortly thereafter, we will begin seeing polls that show John McCain is well behind Obama or Hillary. Don't let pollsters choose your nominee for you.

Remember chapter 6 from "A Choice Not An Echo."

McCain rescues Hillary - the New Hampshire results were predictable

On January 4th, I warned of the possibility that John McCain would rescue the Clintons by draining independent voters away from Obama, much as he rescued Al Gore in the 2000 New Hampshire primary by taking independents away from Bill Bradley.

The pre-primary polls did not reflect the possibility that independents could vote for either a Democrat or Republican. My own theory is that much of the vote that was expected to end up in Obama's column went to McCain. Independents were allowed to vote in either primary and were predicted to make up more than 40% of the New Hampshire vote.

As I wrote on Friday:

. . . Hillary may well sneak over the finish line in New Hampshire and avoid the calamity that a double loss would have brought her. McCain may win New Hampshire in his vain attempt to get the nomination, but a McCain victory will actually translate into a Hillary victory.

I refused to get too excited about Monday's headlines that predicted Hillary's exit partially because of the McCain factor and partially because those predictions of Hillary's demise were based somewhat on the word of John Edwards, who is incapable of telling the truth.

Years from now, as we lament the list of President Hillary's critics who suddenly find themselves subject to tax audits or political prosecutions, we can thank John McCain for keeping Hillary's White House hopes alive.

The second lesson of New Hampshire 2008 is - polls mean nothing. Never base your vote or your support upon a poll.

---------------------------------
More details of the vote here.
--------------------------------------------
update

The left blames the voting machines or something. At least they are not being hypocrites for trotting out the same theories they raised after recent Republican victories. The DNC leadership is being hypocritical for not supporting the leftists after yesterday's election mess. BTW, where is Al Gore? Why isn't he front and center with the lunatic left demanding a recount?

Catron speculates that Clinton supporters lied to the pollsters about supporting Obama for fear of seeming racist, only to vote for Hillary.

---------------------------------------
Wednesday evening update -
Wuzzadem on polls.